2011 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

13·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Dan Orlovsky

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TEN -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.129
  • 39.2%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.182
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -1.91CPOE-4.66
  • 35.9%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.05
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:5338Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:1834Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:40617Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:471056Field goal0–3
TENQ2 15:0034Punt0–3
INDQ2 13:16411Punt0–3
TENQ2 11:2036Punt0–3
INDQ2 9:4334Punt0–3
TENQ2 7:55423Field goal3–3
INDQ2 5:3230Punt3–3
TENQ2 3:4933Punt3–3
INDQ2 2:45117Turnover3–3
TENQ2 2:38845Field goal6–3
INDQ2 0:2100End of half6–3
TENQ3 15:0033Punt6–3
INDQ3 13:27743Touchdown6–10
TENQ3 9:3664Opp touchdown6–17
TENQ3 6:311040Punt6–17
INDQ3 1:33658Field goal6–20
TENQ4 12:53242Turnover6–20
INDQ4 12:1936Punt6–20
TENQ4 9:54850Turnover6–20
INDQ4 7:193-4Punt6–20
TENQ4 6:13869Touchdown13–20
INDQ4 3:43180Touchdown13–27
TENQ4 3:261174Turnover on downs13–27
INDQ4 1:1700End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck27/4022302
Jake Locker11/1610810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson15553.70
Jake Locker199.00
Jamie Harper231.50
Matt Hasselbeck1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook9111030
Lavelle Hawkins810880
Nate Washington713621
Chris Johnson811540
Damian Williams26150
Craig Stevens1190
Jamie Harper1120

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dan Orlovsky11/178210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown1616110.11
Joseph Addai11201.80
Delone Carter3196.30
Pierre Garcon188.00
Dan Orlovsky3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne33331
Pierre Garcon24240
Joseph Addai2270
Brody Eldridge1140
Jacob Tamme1230
Donald Brown1120
Anthony Gonzalez0100
Austin Collie0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.11