Closing spread
TEN -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.129
- 39.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.182
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.91CPOE-4.66
- 35.9%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 1.51Points / drive1.05
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/40 | 223 | 0 | 2 |
| Jake Locker | 11/16 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 9 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 8 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 7 | 13 | 62 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 8 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 11/17 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 16 | 161 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.11