2011 · Week 15 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 29°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.050
- 41.9%Success rate44.0%
- -0.048EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.12CPOE+1.53
- 36.9%Third-down rate38.3%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.48Points / drive1.84
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 15/24 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 23 | 53 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/40 | 257 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 12 | 73 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.61