2011 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

23·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 29°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.050
  • 41.9%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.12CPOE+1.53
  • 36.9%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.84
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 14:4430Punt0–0
WASQ1 14:15952Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 9:14421Punt3–0
WASQ1 7:4410Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 7:3338Punt3–0
WASQ1 5:341372Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 13:42211Turnover10–0
WASQ2 12:38941Touchdown17–0
NYGQ2 7:56625Punt17–0
WASQ2 4:22728Turnover on downs17–0
NYGQ2 1:00546Field goal17–3
WASQ2 0:0200End of half17–3
NYGQ3 15:0023Turnover17–3
WASQ3 13:5839Field goal20–3
NYGQ3 11:491153Missed field goal20–3
WASQ3 5:28959Field goal23–3
NYGQ4 14:57564Turnover23–3
WASQ4 12:4636Punt23–3
NYGQ4 11:151017Turnover on downs23–3
WASQ4 8:53934Punt23–3
NYGQ4 4:031376Touchdown23–10
WASQ4 0:3300End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman15/2418512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roy Helu23532.30
Evan Royster10363.60
Anthony Armstrong11414.00
Niles Paul177.00
Rex Grossman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney69850
Santana Moss25401
Donte' Stallworth23350
Roy Helu34160
Logan Paulsen1190
Anthony Armstrong0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/4025703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw10585.81
Brandon Jacobs8334.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks512730
Mario Manningham35570
Victor Cruz59440
Bear Pascoe23260
Ahmad Bradshaw34210
Jake Ballard12150
Ramses Barden1160
D.J. Ware1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.61