Closing spread
GB -13
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play+0.230
- 39.3%Success rate48.2%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.405
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.2%
- -2.53CPOE+8.47
- 32.9%Third-down rate48.7%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.37Points / drive2.85
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 19/28 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahlil Bell | 23 | 121 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 6 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/29 | 283 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| James Starks | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 7 | 115 | 2 |
| James Jones | 4 | 6 | 50 | 2 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.78