2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Josh McCown

21·35

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -13

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.110EPA / play+0.230
  • 39.3%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.405
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.114
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -2.53CPOE+8.47
  • 32.9%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.85
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00980Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:261165Missed field goal0–7
GBQ1 4:1644Punt0–7
CHIQ1 2:38523Punt0–7
GBQ2 15:0036Punt0–7
CHIQ2 13:441059Turnover0–7
GBQ2 8:1737Punt0–7
CHIQ2 6:47861Field goal3–7
GBQ2 1:56765Touchdown3–14
CHIQ2 0:1600End of half3–14
CHIQ3 15:00670Touchdown10–14
GBQ3 11:35480Touchdown10–21
CHIQ3 10:0237Punt10–21
GBQ3 8:211275Touchdown10–28
CHIQ3 1:5432Turnover10–28
GBQ3 0:55430Touchdown10–35
CHIQ4 14:531267Touchdown18–35
GBQ4 7:54518Punt18–35
CHIQ4 4:331288Field goal21–35
GBQ4 1:1100End of half21–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown19/2824212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kahlil Bell231215.30
Armando Allen11403.60
Josh McCown8384.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Williams69810
Dane Sanzenbacher47510
Earl Bennett13490
Kahlil Bell44380
Kellen Davis33211

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/2928350

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant8445.50
Aaron Rodgers4184.50
James Starks6132.20
Brandon Saine188.00
Matt Flynn2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson671152
James Jones46502
Ryan Grant22340
Donald Driver23290
Randall Cobb23220
Jermichael Finley36201
Tom Crabtree1170
James Starks1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.78