Closing spread
KC -3
Total
43
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBFoot· DNP
- OutJacoby FordWRFoot· DNP
- OutJason CampbellQBCollarbone· DNP
- OutJohn HendersonDTKnee· DNP
- OutMichael HuffSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableLouis MurphyWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableMichael BushRBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableTommy KellyDTToe· Limited
- ProbableBryan McCannCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableChaz SchilensWRHip· Full
- ProbableDenarius MooreWRFoot· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSShoulder· Full
- ProbableRock CartwrightRBCalf· Full
- ProbableSamson SateleCShoulder· Full
Chiefs
- OutJon McGrawSAnkle· DNP
- ProbableCasey WiegmannCCalf· Limited
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:20 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:43 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:04 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:06 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 14:03 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:10 | 10 | 33 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 6:33 | 9 | 28 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:51 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 2:00 | 8 | 50 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 12:47 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| KC | Q3 8:52 | 10 | 83 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LV | Q3 3:30 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–6 |
| KC | Q3 1:56 | 9 | 35 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LV | Q4 12:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–6 |
| KC | Q4 11:25 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| LV | Q4 7:45 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| KC | Q4 2:57 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| LV | Q4 1:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| KC | Q4 0:16 | 2 | 36 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | OT | 3 | 58 | Field goal | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 21/36 | 300 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 11 | 80 | 1 |
| Terrance Copper | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.