Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play+0.047
- 47.0%Success rate45.1%
- +0.077EPA / dropback+0.144
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.111
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.41CPOE+4.08
- 42.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.79
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/32 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen McGee | 24/38 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Stephen McGee | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Washington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Chauncey Washington | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.31