2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

20·7

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.053EPA / play+0.047
  • 47.0%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback+0.144
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.111
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.41CPOE+4.08
  • 42.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.79
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00862Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 11:30416Punt7–0
PHIQ1 9:44425Punt7–0
DALQ1 7:55833Punt7–0
PHIQ1 2:44625Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:521048Punt7–0
PHIQ2 8:55885Turnover7–0
DALQ2 4:471041Punt7–0
PHIQ2 0:55587Touchdown14–0
DALQ2 0:0500End of half14–0
DALQ3 15:0039Punt14–0
PHIQ3 13:1031Punt14–0
DALQ3 12:36414Punt14–0
PHIQ3 10:5037Punt14–0
DALQ3 8:363-9Punt14–0
PHIQ3 6:57434Field goal17–0
DALQ3 4:303-1Punt17–0
PHIQ3 2:53826Field goal20–0
DALQ4 13:2535Punt20–0
PHIQ4 12:17726Punt20–0
DALQ4 9:331766Turnover on downs20–0
PHIQ4 2:1339Punt20–0
DALQ4 0:19216Touchdown20–7
PHIQ4 0:0700End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick18/3229320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy13352.70
Ronnie Brown8334.10
DeSean Jackson22713.50
Mike Vick3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson59900
Jeremy Maclin56721
Brent Celek25521
Jason Avant24350
Riley Cooper11280
LeSean McCoy12100
Clay Harbor1190
Chad Hall11-30

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stephen McGee24/3818210
Tony Romo0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris13292.20
Stephen McGee4287.00
Felix Jones4246.00
Chauncey Washington1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant68620
Miles Austin48401
Martellus Bennett36280
Jason Witten47240
Chauncey Washington23130
Sammy Morris44100
Laurent Robinson1250
Felix Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.31