Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.069
- 40.8%Success rate38.9%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -0.45CPOE+0.03
- 29.6%Third-down rate33.6%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.87Points / drive1.31
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/26 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 15/28 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 107 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 7 | 17 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.30