2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·45

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

54.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.198
  • 44.8%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.305
  • +0.115EPA / rush+0.014
  • 12.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.04CPOE+7.27
  • 38.7%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.96
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:00480Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 13:211380Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 6:42983Touchdown7–14
CARQ1 2:50863Turnover7–14
NOQ2 13:421061Turnover7–14
CARQ2 8:21513Field goal10–14
NOQ2 5:50855Field goal10–17
CARQ2 2:42580Touchdown17–17
NOQ2 1:18681Touchdown17–24
CARQ2 0:0700End of half17–24
CARQ3 15:0050Punt17–24
NOQ3 12:22771Touchdown17–31
CARQ3 8:5433Punt17–31
NOQ3 7:10744Touchdown17–38
CARQ3 3:47524Punt17–38
NOQ3 1:05768Touchdown17–45
CARQ4 12:15618Punt17–45
NOQ4 9:29521Punt17–45
CARQ4 6:23122Turnover17–45
NOQ4 6:12856Turnover on downs17–45
CARQ4 0:3600End of half17–45

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2515811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart9798.81
DeAngelo Williams7537.60
Cam Newton6325.30
Steve Smith111.00
Derek Anderson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith67861
Brandon LaFell22270
DeAngelo Williams24200
Jeremy Shockey36180
Jonathan Stewart2270
Greg Olsen0100
Seyi Ajirotutu0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3538951
Chase Daniel3/32000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory191276.71
Darren Sproles6406.70
Pierre Thomas5306.00
Devery Henderson199.00
Drew Brees155.00
Chase Daniel3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston7101452
Jimmy Graham89971
Devery Henderson22480
Pierre Thomas35360
Robert Meachem22300
Darren Sproles56291
Adrian Arrington11170
Mike Higgins1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+5.85