Closing spread
NO -7
Total
54.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.198
- 44.8%Success rate51.4%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.305
- +0.115EPA / rush+0.014
- 12.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.04CPOE+7.27
- 38.7%Third-down rate58.6%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.08Points / drive2.96
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/25 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Seyi Ajirotutu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/35 | 389 | 5 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 3/3 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 19 | 127 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 10 | 145 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Adrian Arrington | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Higgins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+5.85