2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Josh McCown

17·13

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Joe Webb

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.110EPA / play-0.054
  • 39.3%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.026
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.53CPOE-5.80
  • 32.9%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.60
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:18210Turnover0–0
MINQ1 12:31741Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 8:5333Punt0–3
MINQ1 7:4659Punt0–3
CHIQ1 5:0924Turnover0–3
MINQ1 4:25318Touchdown0–10
CHIQ1 3:42890Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 14:192-5Opp touchdown14–10
MINQ2 13:3736Punt14–10
CHIQ2 12:073-3Punt14–10
MINQ2 10:44825Missed field goal14–10
CHIQ2 5:443-9Punt14–10
MINQ2 4:12871Field goal14–13
CHIQ2 0:5528End of half14–13
CHIQ3 15:0034Punt14–13
MINQ3 13:30520Turnover14–13
CHIQ3 11:553-3Punt14–13
MINQ3 9:54419Punt14–13
CHIQ3 7:2359Punt14–13
MINQ3 4:46413Punt14–13
CHIQ3 2:381575Field goal17–13
MINQ4 10:19836Punt17–13
CHIQ4 6:4820Turnover17–13
MINQ4 6:054-3Turnover on downs17–13
CHIQ4 5:10622Punt17–13
MINQ4 1:51840Turnover17–13
CHIQ4 0:2600End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown15/2516011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kahlil Bell17543.20
Josh McCown4307.50
Armando Allen482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Williams47601
Earl Bennett35310
Kahlil Bell55280
Dane Sanzenbacher24270
Devin Hester12140
Matt Spaeth0100
Armando Allen0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Webb17/3220002
Christian Ponder4/102801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart15674.50
Percy Harvin5132.61
Joe Webb420.50
Lorenzo Booker2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin10171150
Devin Aromashodu311530
Lorenzo Booker34330
Kyle Rudolph34150
Greg Camarillo1390
Toby Gerhart1230
Joe Webb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.29
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.89