Closing spread
MIN -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.054
- 39.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.53CPOE-5.80
- 32.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.37Points / drive1.60
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 15/25 | 160 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahlil Bell | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 4 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Armando Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 17/32 | 200 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Ponder | 4/10 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Joe Webb | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 10 | 17 | 115 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 3 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.29
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.89