2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

14·31

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

48

Model margin

+1.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.050
  • 45.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.143
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.08CPOE+1.53
  • 39.2%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.84
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:22616Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:55410Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:46696Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 4:573-1Punt0–7
NYGQ1 2:541149Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 13:273-5Punt0–14
NYGQ2 11:29636Missed field goal0–14
DALQ2 7:29534Punt0–14
NYGQ2 4:33880Touchdown0–21
DALQ2 1:09752Missed field goal0–21
NYGQ3 15:00541Punt0–21
DALQ3 11:22994Touchdown7–21
NYGQ3 6:543-1Punt7–21
DALQ3 5:31513Turnover7–21
NYGQ3 4:0753Turnover on downs7–21
DALQ3 2:23849Turnover on downs7–21
NYGQ4 13:5639Punt7–21
DALQ4 11:40326Touchdown14–21
NYGQ4 10:15865Field goal14–24
DALQ4 5:453-3Punt14–24
NYGQ4 4:55445Touchdown14–31
DALQ4 3:41725Turnover14–31
NYGQ4 1:4100End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo29/3728921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones11302.70
Sammy Morris3165.30
Tony Romo231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant68700
Jason Witten78690
Laurent Robinson45612
Felix Jones78470
Miles Austin25200
Martellus Bennett1150
Sammy Morris1130

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/3334630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw16573.61
D.J. Ware2199.50
Brandon Jacobs7162.30
Eli Manning6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz6111781
Hakeem Nicks56761
Devin Thomas11140
Bear Pascoe22140
Travis Beckum23130
Ahmad Bradshaw34121
D.J. Ware1180
Brandon Jacobs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.59