Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
48
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.050
- 45.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.08CPOE+1.53
- 39.2%Third-down rate38.3%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.84
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 29/37 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 4 | 5 | 61 | 2 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/33 | 346 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 11 | 178 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59