2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

41·45

Packers

Green Bay

QB Matt Flynn

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

DET -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.230
  • 44.2%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback+0.405
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.114
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.23CPOE+8.47
  • 35.2%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.98Points / drive2.85
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:00415Turnover0–0
DETQ1 14:09435Touchdown9–0
GBQ1 13:0000Safety9–0
DETQ1 12:5933Punt9–0
GBQ1 11:341464Field goal9–3
DETQ1 5:55443Turnover9–3
GBQ1 4:17748Touchdown9–10
DETQ1 0:16512Punt9–10
GBQ2 14:0235Punt9–10
DETQ2 12:291060Touchdown16–10
GBQ2 8:18280Touchdown16–17
DETQ2 8:0000Turnover16–17
GBQ2 7:51212Turnover16–17
DETQ2 7:18427Field goal19–17
GBQ2 5:53558Touchdown19–24
DETQ2 3:37856Missed field goal19–24
GBQ2 1:46642Missed field goal19–24
DETQ3 15:00662Turnover19–24
GBQ3 11:3839Punt19–24
DETQ3 10:11858Touchdown26–24
GBQ3 6:39480Touchdown26–31
DETQ3 4:32685Touchdown34–31
GBQ3 2:0731Punt34–31
DETQ4 14:49631Turnover on downs34–31
GBQ4 12:50859Touchdown34–38
DETQ4 8:103-7Punt34–38
GBQ4 7:1733Punt34–38
DETQ4 5:01867Touchdown41–38
GBQ4 2:39875Touchdown41–45
DETQ4 1:10443Turnover41–45
GBQ4 0:2500End of half41–45

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford36/5952052

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith9353.90
Stefan Logan11616.00
Maurice Morris4133.30
Nate Burleson199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson11172441
Brandon Pettigrew7111160
Tony Scheffler46651
Nate Burleson611450
Kevin Smith46261
Titus Young48242

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn31/4448061

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant12484.00
Brandon Saine8283.50
Matt Flynn200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson9151623
James Jones68890
Ryan Grant13801
Jermichael Finley78641
Donald Driver24521
Brandon Saine33170
D.J. Williams1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.97
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.51