Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.230
- 44.2%Success rate48.2%
- +0.101EPA / dropback+0.405
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.23CPOE+8.47
- 35.2%Third-down rate48.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.98Points / drive2.85
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 36/59 | 520 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 11 | 17 | 244 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 8 | 24 | 2 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 31/44 | 480 | 6 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Saine | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 15 | 162 | 3 |
| James Jones | 6 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 7 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Brandon Saine | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.97
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.51