2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Kyle Orton

7·3

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

37

Model margin

-0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.089
  • 38.8%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.61CPOE-6.16
  • 35.7%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 38.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.16
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
KCQ1 15:00740Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:1538Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:12532Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 7:3036Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:331390Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 0:111170Turnover7–0
KCQ2 8:37528Punt7–0
DENQ2 5:59423Punt7–0
KCQ2 4:1631Punt7–0
DENQ2 2:07835Punt7–0
KCQ2 0:22425End of half7–0
DENQ3 15:001031Punt7–0
DENQ3 9:4135Field goal7–3
KCQ3 8:11625Punt7–3
DENQ3 5:17726Punt7–3
KCQ3 1:5936Punt7–3
DENQ3 0:541036Punt7–3
KCQ4 10:2334Punt7–3
DENQ4 8:3036Punt7–3
KCQ4 6:35725Punt7–3
DENQ4 3:5943Punt7–3
KCQ4 2:2636Punt7–3
DENQ4 0:58717Turnover7–3
KCQ4 0:0800End of half7–3

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton15/2918000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster12615.11
Thomas Jones15422.80
Kyle Orton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe66930
Jon Baldwin37270
Dexter McCluster36250
Terrance Copper12140
Leonard Pope11120
Steve Breaston1590
Thomas Jones0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow6/226001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee281455.20
Lance Ball9242.70
Eddie Royal2189.00
Tim Tebow6162.70
Jeremiah Johnson2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas37340
Daniel Fells11140
Eric Decker1350
Willis McGahee0100
Matt Willis0100
Dante Rosario0100
Eddie Royal0400
Virgil Green0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.92
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.42