Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
37
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.089
- 38.8%Success rate39.5%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.61CPOE-6.16
- 35.7%Third-down rate30.8%
- 38.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.06Points / drive1.16
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/29 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 6/22 | 60 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 28 | 145 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Johnson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42