2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

17·19

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.033
  • 40.3%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.088EPA / rush-0.116
  • 6.8%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -3.75CPOE+2.28
  • 35.5%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.63
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:55840Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 9:31877Touchdown7–3
MIAQ1 5:5136Punt7–3
NYJQ1 3:3137Punt7–3
MIAQ1 1:59312Turnover7–3
NYJQ1 0:3835Punt7–3
MIAQ2 14:19432Punt7–3
NYJQ2 11:571279Field goal10–3
MIAQ2 3:3934Punt10–3
NYJQ2 2:183-1Punt10–3
MIAQ2 1:4353Turnover10–3
NYJQ2 0:2522Turnover10–3
MIAQ2 0:0910Field goal10–6
MIAQ3 15:0034Punt10–6
NYJQ3 12:40848Punt10–6
MIAQ3 7:562199Touchdown10–13
NYJQ4 10:27427Turnover10–13
MIAQ4 8:3633Field goal10–16
NYJQ4 7:111345Turnover10–16
MIAQ4 2:5539Field goal10–19
NYJQ4 2:32780Touchdown17–19
MIAQ4 1:1500End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez21/3220723
Jeremy Kerley1/14100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson11565.10
Shonn Greene14553.90
Jeremy Kerley11616.00
Mark Sanchez122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley46710
Plaxico Burress45570
Dustin Keller77451
Matthew Mulligan11410
LaDainian Tomlinson47230
Patrick Turner12101
Santonio Holmes0100
Shonn Greene0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore22/3213512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton11555.00
Daniel Thomas12282.30
Matt Moore3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall58500
Davone Bess66450
Brian Hartline27160
Daniel Thomas22120
Anthony Fasano46110
Charles Clay1111
Steve Slaton11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.11