Closing spread
MIA -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.033
- 40.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.116
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.5%
- -3.75CPOE+2.28
- 35.5%Third-down rate33.1%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 1.44Points / drive1.63
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 21/32 | 207 | 2 | 3 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1/1 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 7 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 22/32 | 135 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11