Closing spread
OAK -2.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutTravis LaBoyLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRyan MathewsRBCalf· DNP
- ProbableAndrew GachkarLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableAntonio GatesTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableJared GaitherTAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike TolbertRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableShaun PhillipsLBBack· Full
- ProbableVincent JacksonWRGroin· Full
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBFoot· DNP
- OutJason CampbellQBCollarbone· DNP
- OutJohn HendersonDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJacoby FordWRFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMichael HuffSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableDeMarcus Van DykeCBConcussion· Full
- ProbableLouis MurphyWRGroin· Full
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTIllness· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:09 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:20 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 1:02 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:01 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:26 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:19 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| LV | Q2 6:06 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q2 2:19 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:46 | 7 | 38 | End of half | 24–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 85 | Field goal | 24–16 |
| LAC | Q3 13:18 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–16 |
| LV | Q3 7:33 | 13 | 76 | Field goal | 31–19 |
| LAC | Q3 1:18 | 9 | 41 | Missed field goal | 31–19 |
| LV | Q4 11:05 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 31–26 |
| LAC | Q4 9:37 | 5 | 109 | Touchdown | 38–26 |
| LV | Q4 6:48 | 6 | 42 | Turnover | 38–26 |
| LAC | Q4 4:36 | 6 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 38–26 |
| LV | Q4 0:26 | 2 | 19 | End of half | 38–26 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.