Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.077
- 38.9%Success rate41.4%
- -0.035EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.03CPOE-5.82
- 33.6%Third-down rate32.0%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.31Points / drive1.38
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 21/35 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 78 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 22/40 | 271 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 18 | 149 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29