2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

20·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.077
  • 38.9%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.03CPOE-5.82
  • 33.6%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.38
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:15417Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:43732Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:39976Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 3:021455Field goal3–7
ARIQ2 12:10121Turnover3–7
SEAQ2 11:535-7Turnover3–7
ARIQ2 10:003-3Punt3–7
SEAQ2 8:3338Punt3–7
ARIQ2 6:42613Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 3:28632Punt3–10
ARIQ2 1:1434Punt3–10
SEAQ2 0:4448End of half3–10
ARIQ3 15:00612Punt3–10
SEAQ3 12:18359Touchdown10–10
ARIQ3 10:56880Touchdown10–17
SEAQ3 6:181168Missed field goal10–17
ARIQ3 0:12755Field goal10–20
SEAQ4 12:1838Punt10–20
ARIQ4 10:4928Turnover10–20
SEAQ4 10:043-1Field goal13–20
ARIQ4 9:0536Punt19–20
SEAQ4 7:56161Touchdown20–20
ARIQ4 7:47522Punt20–20
SEAQ4 5:06520Punt20–20
ARIQ4 2:1737Punt20–20
SEAQ4 1:46523Punt20–20
ARIQ4 0:2600End of half20–20
SEAOT3-1Punt20–20
ARIOT1271Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson21/3522211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch19864.50
Leon Washington77811.11
Justin Forsett6162.70
Tarvaris Jackson133.00
Golden Tate1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricardo Lockette12611
Golden Tate56460
Doug Baldwin34400
Ben Obomanu37370
Cameron Morrah12140
Leon Washington22120
Deon Butler11110
Marshawn Lynch2450
Zach Miller0400
Justin Forsett33-40

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton22/4027111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling21934.40
John Skelton5193.80
Chester Taylor382.71
Andre Roberts188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald9181490
Todd Heap22351
Rob Housler23270
Andre Roberts48240
Jeff King22120
Early Doucet1370
Chester Taylor1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.29