Closing spread
SF -12.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutDelanie WalkerTEJaw· DNP
- QuestionableBruce MillerRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableCarlos RogersCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChris CulliverCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKyle WilliamsWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionablePatrick WillisLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTed GinnWRAnkle· DNP
Rams
- DoubtfulA.J. FeeleyQBright Thumb· DNP
- DoubtfulSam BradfordQBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBrady PoppingaLBIllness· Full
- ProbableJerious NorwoodRBIllness· Full
- ProbableJosh GordyCBAbdomen· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:41 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 6:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:50 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:28 | 6 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:37 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 13:41 | 2 | 34 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:05 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:59 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 7:14 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 3:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SF | Q2 2:50 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 20–7 |
| SF | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 20–7 |
| SF | Q3 12:48 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LA | Q3 8:42 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| SF | Q3 5:04 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 27–10 |
| LA | Q3 0:55 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| SF | Q4 12:19 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 9:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| SF | Q4 8:58 | 5 | 13 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| LA | Q4 6:30 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| SF | Q4 4:49 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| LA | Q4 4:45 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 34–27 |
| SF | Q4 4:36 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 34–27 |
| LA | Q4 3:37 | 7 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 34–27 |
| SF | Q4 2:37 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 34–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/30 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
| David Akers | 1/1 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Hunter | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 8 | 9 | 118 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 8 | 10 | 86 | 2 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Hastings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
0.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.