Closing spread
SF -12.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/30 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
| David Akers | 1/1 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Hunter | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 8 | 9 | 118 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 8 | 10 | 86 | 2 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Hastings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
0.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.