2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

10·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

44

Model margin

+5.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.053
  • 41.9%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.076EPA / rush+0.010
  • 8.9%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -1.12CPOE+0.41
  • 36.9%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.91
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:3935Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:10431Field goal0–3
WASQ1 10:29737Punt0–3
PHIQ1 6:53621Punt0–3
WASQ1 4:19424Punt0–3
PHIQ1 2:05835Punt0–3
WASQ2 13:34319Turnover0–3
PHIQ2 12:12410Punt0–3
WASQ2 10:38952Missed field goal0–3
PHIQ2 5:53865Touchdown0–10
WASQ2 1:44740Turnover on downs0–10
PHIQ2 0:441-15Turnover0–10
WASQ2 0:35525End of half0–10
WASQ3 15:00880Touchdown7–10
PHIQ3 10:291257Field goal7–13
WASQ3 4:051156Field goal10–13
PHIQ4 13:24485Touchdown10–20
WASQ4 12:0156Punt10–20
PHIQ4 10:1010Turnover10–20
WASQ4 9:5132Punt10–20
PHIQ4 9:00665Touchdown10–27
WASQ4 5:5647Turnover on downs10–27
PHIQ4 5:06640Touchdown10–34
WASQ4 1:56524End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman22/4525611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Evan Royster201135.70
Roy Helu451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Helu22481
Santana Moss39450
Evan Royster46440
Logan Paulsen25290
Jabar Gaffney411280
Brandon Banks11100
Donte' Stallworth1180
Terrence Austin1240
Anthony Armstrong0300
Niles Paul0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick24/3933531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis12584.81
Ronnie Brown6142.30
Mike Vick133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin8131050
Brent Celek610861
DeSean Jackson46861
Jason Avant46420
Clay Harbor1290
Chad Hall1171
Ronnie Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.77