2011 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
44
Model margin
+5.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.053
- 41.9%Success rate47.0%
- -0.048EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.076EPA / rush+0.010
- 8.9%Explosive rate12.1%
- -1.12CPOE+0.41
- 36.9%Third-down rate42.0%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.48Points / drive1.91
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 22/45 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Royster | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 11 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 24/39 | 335 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 13 | 105 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.77