2012 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

30·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Packers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPackers
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.102
  • 47.9%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.222
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.111
  • 12.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +5.02CPOE+5.43
  • 35.1%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–GB
SFQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:03911Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:11858Field goal3–0
GBQ1 4:53835Punt3–0
SFQ1 1:201170Touchdown10–0
GBQ2 11:101485Touchdown10–7
SFQ2 4:401050Field goal13–7
GBQ2 0:5537Punt13–7
SFQ2 0:18317Field goal16–7
GBQ3 15:0039Punt16–7
SFQ3 13:25989Touchdown23–7
GBQ3 8:16628Punt23–7
SFQ3 4:36730Punt23–7
GBQ3 0:46633Punt23–7
SFQ4 14:06411Opp touchdown23–15
SFQ4 11:1639Punt23–15
GBQ4 8:5910Turnover29–15
SFQ4 8:50123Touchdown30–15
GBQ4 8:41782Touchdown30–22
SFQ4 6:05518Punt30–22
GBQ4 3:371034Turnover on downs30–22
SFQ4 0:4900End of half30–22

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/2621120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore161127.01
Kendall Hunter9414.60
Colin Kaepernick11717.00
Alex Smith5132.60
Kyle Williams133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree79760
Randy Moss44471
Vernon Davis35431
Mario Manningham44290
Frank Gore1110
Delanie Walker0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers30/4430321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers5275.40
Cedric Benson9182.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones46811
Randall Cobb99770
Jordy Nelson57640
Jermichael Finley711471
Greg Jennings59340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.14