Closing spread
GB -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.102
- 47.9%Success rate46.3%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.111
- 12.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +5.02CPOE+5.43
- 35.1%Third-down rate42.8%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 1.92Points / drive2.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/26 | 211 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 112 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 30/44 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 9 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 7 | 11 | 47 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.14