Closing spread
BAL -11.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play+0.025
- 39.6%Success rate41.5%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -4.22CPOE-0.27
- 30.6%Third-down rate37.1%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.48Points / drive1.80
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 25/52 | 320 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 4 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 4 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/46 | 356 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 9 | 12 | 131 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.02