2012 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

16·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 77°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -11.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.068EPA / play+0.025
  • 39.6%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -4.22CPOE-0.27
  • 30.6%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.80
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:08618Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:04612Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:3546Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:07530Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 3:21421Punt0–0
CLEQ1 1:3412Punt0–0
CLEQ1 1:0000Punt0–0
BALQ1 0:50690Touchdown0–6
CLEQ2 12:5735Punt0–6
BALQ2 12:01632Field goal0–9
CLEQ2 10:033-3Punt0–9
BALQ2 8:3730Punt0–9
CLEQ2 7:241194Touchdown7–9
BALQ2 2:32632Punt7–9
CLEQ2 1:0333Punt7–9
BALQ2 0:404-9Turnover on downs7–9
BALQ3 15:001384Touchdown7–16
CLEQ3 9:53738Field goal10–16
BALQ3 6:521066Missed field goal10–16
CLEQ3 2:07520Opp touchdown10–23
CLEQ3 0:15748Field goal13–23
BALQ4 12:11525Punt13–23
CLEQ4 10:0135Punt13–23
BALQ4 9:10515Punt13–23
CLEQ4 6:08438Field goal16–23
BALQ4 4:33949Punt16–23
CLEQ4 1:05857Turnover on downs16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden25/5232001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson14473.41
Travis Benjamin100.00
Chris Ogbonnaya1-2-2.00
Greg Little1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little410770
Trent Richardson46570
Jordan Norwood410560
Benjamin Watson56520
Travis Benjamin25260
Josh Gordon11160
Jordan Cameron16150
Josh Cribbs22110
Chris Ogbonnaya24100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/4635611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice18492.70
Bernard Pierce6488.00
Joe Flacco242.01
Torrey Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin9121310
Torrey Smith610971
Ray Rice811470
Tandon Doss12390
Jacoby Jones27170
Dennis Pitta0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.02