Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutAaron HernandezTEAnkle· DNP
- OutJulian EdelmanWRHand· DNP
- QuestionableAlfonzo DennardCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon DeaderickDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJustin FrancisDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKyle LoveDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLogan MankinsGHip· DNP
- QuestionableNick McDonaldCShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRob GronkowskiTEHip· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian VollmerTBack· Limited
- QuestionableShane VereenRBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableSterling MooreCBKnee· Limited
- LimitedTom BradyQBright Shoulder
Bills
- OutRuvell MartinWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableC.J. SpillerRBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableFred JacksonRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableLeodis McKelvinCBGroin· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.007
- 50.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.282EPA / dropback+0.004
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.48CPOE-1.57
- 48.4%Third-down rate39.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.71Points / drive1.58
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:56 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:49 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 3:18 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 0:42 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 13:41 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:56 | 4 | 11 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 11:16 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:00 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| BUF | Q2 9:51 | 1 | 24 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 9:43 | 10 | 57 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 5:42 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 3:30 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q2 2:15 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| NE | Q2 1:11 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 7–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q3 13:45 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| NE | Q3 11:08 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| BUF | Q3 8:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–21 |
| NE | Q3 7:12 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| BUF | Q3 3:53 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 21–21 |
| NE | Q3 1:56 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| BUF | Q4 14:55 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 28–21 |
| NE | Q4 13:26 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 35–21 |
| BUF | Q4 11:42 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 35–21 |
| NE | Q4 11:19 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 42–21 |
| BUF | Q4 10:29 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 42–28 |
| NE | Q4 6:32 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 49–28 |
| BUF | Q4 4:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 49–28 |
| NE | Q4 3:54 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 52–28 |
| BUF | Q4 1:56 | 4 | 23 | End of half | 52–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/36 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 16 | 137 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 9 | 11 | 129 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 11 | 104 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/39 | 350 | 4 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Jones | 2 | 3 | 90 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 8 | 62 | 2 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.10