Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.007
- 50.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.282EPA / dropback+0.004
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.48CPOE-1.57
- 48.4%Third-down rate39.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.71Points / drive1.58
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/36 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 16 | 137 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 9 | 11 | 129 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 11 | 104 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/39 | 350 | 4 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Jones | 2 | 3 | 90 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 8 | 62 | 2 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.10