Closing spread
NE -6
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.113EPA / play+0.176
- 48.0%Success rate50.2%
- +0.271EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.031
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +7.00CPOE+1.48
- 46.0%Third-down rate48.4%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 2.26Points / drive2.71
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/44 | 337 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 11 | 180 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 6 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 4 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/31 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 28 | 151 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 13 | 15 | 104 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94