2012 · Week 5

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

21·31

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -6

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • +0.113EPA / play+0.176
  • 48.0%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.271EPA / dropback+0.282
  • -0.106EPA / rush+0.031
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +7.00CPOE+1.48
  • 46.0%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.71
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NE
DENQ1 15:00866Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:22414Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:11613Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:521284Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 3:081161Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 14:051485Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 7:57729Punt7–14
NEQ2 5:031593Field goal7–17
DENQ2 0:0200End of half7–17
NEQ3 15:0030Punt7–17
DENQ3 13:44418Punt7–17
NEQ3 11:242080Touchdown7–24
DENQ3 5:001-6Turnover7–24
NEQ3 4:5128Touchdown7–31
DENQ3 4:421090Touchdown14–31
NEQ3 1:08834Punt14–31
DENQ4 13:00624Turnover on downs14–31
NEQ4 10:507-4Turnover on downs14–31
DENQ4 8:08643Touchdown21–31
NEQ4 6:43326Turnover21–31
DENQ4 5:19757Turnover21–31
NEQ4 3:42427End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4433730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee14513.60
Peyton Manning294.50
Ronnie Hillman393.00
Lance Ball111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas9111800
Willis McGahee56510
Jacob Tamme611500
Joel Dreessen44211
Eric Decker48211
Brandon Stokley23101
Ronnie Hillman1140

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3122310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley281515.41
Brandon Bolden14543.90
Danny Woodhead7476.70
Shane Vereen111.01
Tom Brady4-2-0.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker13151041
Rob Gronkowski45350
Brandon Lloyd35340
Deion Branch12250
Danny Woodhead11250
Daniel Fells0200
Brandon Bolden1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.94