Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.069
- 41.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.27CPOE-0.02
- 37.1%Third-down rate38.1%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.80Points / drive1.89
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/43 | 147 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 13 | 41 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 23/37 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Ben Tate | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 7 | 10 | 59 | 1 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.61