2012 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

13·43

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTexans
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.069
  • 41.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.27CPOE-0.02
  • 37.1%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.89
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:38745Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 10:5735Punt3–0
BALQ1 9:2537Punt3–0
HOUQ1 8:46513Punt3–0
BALQ1 6:143-3Safety3–2
HOUQ1 4:49962Touchdown3–9
BALQ1 0:3023Opp touchdown3–16
BALQ2 14:5135Punt3–16
HOUQ2 13:37631Punt3–16
BALQ2 10:1437Punt3–16
HOUQ2 9:12658Touchdown3–23
BALQ2 5:5830Punt3–23
HOUQ2 5:25740Field goal3–26
BALQ2 1:57520Turnover3–26
HOUQ2 1:061242Field goal3–29
BALQ2 0:0300End of half3–29
BALQ3 15:0038Punt3–29
HOUQ3 13:203-2Punt3–29
BALQ3 11:56626Touchdown10–29
HOUQ3 10:361390Touchdown10–36
BALQ3 2:561430Field goal13–36
HOUQ4 12:23644Touchdown13–43
BALQ4 8:48928Turnover on downs13–43
HOUQ4 4:44632End of half13–43

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/4314712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice9424.70
Joe Flacco273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith413410
Dennis Pitta58330
Anquan Boldin38240
Jacoby Jones22170
Tandon Doss11151
Ray Rice55120
Ed Dickson1550

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub23/3725620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster19985.22
Ben Tate10474.70
Justin Forsett6325.30
James Casey166.00
Matt Schaub1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson910860
Kevin Walter46741
Owen Daniels710591
Garrett Graham22320
Arian Foster1550
James Casey0200
Keshawn Martin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.61