Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.068
- 41.5%Success rate39.6%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.066
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.27CPOE-4.22
- 37.1%Third-down rate30.6%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.80Points / drive1.48
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/24 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 20/37 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.40