2012 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

25·15

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.068
  • 41.5%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.066
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -0.27CPOE-4.22
  • 37.1%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.48
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:571070Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:3239Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:531386Touchdown14–0
CLEQ1 0:011261Field goal14–3
BALQ2 9:19533Punt14–3
CLEQ2 5:52976Field goal14–6
BALQ2 1:4735Punt14–6
CLEQ2 1:03650Field goal14–9
BALQ2 0:0300End of half14–9
BALQ3 15:0030Punt14–9
CLEQ3 13:5937Turnover14–9
BALQ3 12:5747Punt14–9
CLEQ3 10:563-2Punt14–9
BALQ3 9:313-8Punt14–9
CLEQ3 8:091126Field goal14–12
BALQ3 2:3931Punt14–12
CLEQ3 1:0339Punt14–12
BALQ4 14:4934Punt14–12
CLEQ4 13:201032Field goal14–15
BALQ4 8:481065Touchdown22–15
CLEQ4 4:2648Turnover on downs22–15
BALQ4 3:5039Field goal25–15
CLEQ4 2:4935Turnover25–15
BALQ4 2:09411End of half25–15

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco15/2415310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice25983.91
Bernard Pierce7263.71
Tyrod Taylor144.00
Joe Flacco210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin55570
Torrey Smith49461
Dennis Pitta23330
Ed Dickson23110
Ray Rice2260
Jacoby Jones0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden20/3717602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson251054.20
Brandon Weeden2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little57520
Josh Gordon23380
Trent Richardson69310
Benjamin Watson23220
Travis Benjamin13190
Alex Smith3480
Mohamed Massaquoi1360
Chris Ogbonnaya0200
Jordan Cameron0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.40