Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
54
Model margin
+6.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutAaron WilliamsCBKnee· DNP
- OutErik PearsTHip· DNP
- OutMark AndersonDEKnee· DNP
- OutTerrence McGeeCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableChris KelsayDENeck· DNP
- QuestionableKraig UrbikGFoot· Limited
- QuestionableKyle WilliamsDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableShawne MerrimanLBChest· Limited
- QuestionableSpencer JohnsonDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSteve JohnsonWRThigh· Limited
- ProbableAndy LevitreGKnee· Full
- ProbableBrad SmithWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableC.J. SpillerRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableChris HairstonTKnee· Full
- ProbableEric WoodCKnee· Full
- ProbableJustin RogersCBThigh· Full
- ProbableLeodis McKelvinCBGroin· Full
- ProbableMarcell DareusDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableMario WilliamsDEWrist· Full
- ProbableStephon GilmoreCBShoulder· Full
Patriots
- OutBrandon BoldenRBKnee· DNP
- OutTracy WhiteLBFoot· DNP
- OutTrevor ScottDEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAaron HernandezTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon LloydWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon SpikesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJerod MayoLBElbow· Limited
- QuestionableKyle ArringtonCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableLogan MankinsGCalf· Limited
- QuestionableNick McDonaldCShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRob GronkowskiTEHip· Limited
- QuestionableRon BraceDTElbow· Limited
- QuestionableSebastian VollmerTBack· Limited
- QuestionableSteve GregorySHip· Limited
- QuestionableWes WelkerWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableJulian EdelmanWRHand· Full
- ProbableKyle LoveDTKnee· Full
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.176
- 42.3%Success rate50.2%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.021EPA / rush+0.031
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.57CPOE+1.48
- 39.8%Third-down rate48.4%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.58Points / drive2.71
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:31 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 6:04 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 5:24 | 5 | 3 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q1 3:54 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 12:07 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| BUF | Q2 9:09 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q2 6:03 | 8 | 13 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| BUF | Q2 3:54 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| NE | Q2 0:31 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 17–24 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q3 10:53 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NE | Q3 8:44 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| BUF | Q3 7:06 | 11 | 89 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| NE | Q3 1:37 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 24–34 |
| BUF | Q4 14:10 | 10 | 73 | Turnover | 24–34 |
| NE | Q4 9:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–34 |
| BUF | Q4 9:16 | 6 | 27 | Touchdown | 31–34 |
| NE | Q4 7:47 | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 31–37 |
| BUF | Q4 2:06 | 10 | 65 | Turnover | 31–37 |
| NE | Q4 0:23 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 31–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/40 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 2 |
| C.J. Spiller | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/38 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 22 | 98 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.64