Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
54
Model margin
+6.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.176
- 42.3%Success rate50.2%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.021EPA / rush+0.031
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.57CPOE+1.48
- 39.8%Third-down rate48.4%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.58Points / drive2.71
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/40 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 2 |
| C.J. Spiller | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/38 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 22 | 98 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.64