Closing spread
NE -10
Total
54.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.176
- 45.1%Success rate50.2%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.077EPA / rush+0.031
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.46CPOE+1.48
- 42.3%Third-down rate48.4%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.62Points / drive2.71
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 27/50 | 334 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 9 | 100 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 18 | 72 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 6 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nathan Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/35 | 331 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 7 | 137 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.10