2012 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

24·59

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -10

Total

54.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.176
  • 45.1%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.282
  • -0.077EPA / rush+0.031
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -4.46CPOE+1.48
  • 42.3%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.71
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
INDQ1 15:00840Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 10:49881Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 7:071084Touchdown14–7
NEQ1 1:441267Missed field goal14–7
INDQ2 12:2630Opp touchdown14–14
INDQ2 12:0029Opp touchdown14–21
INDQ2 10:591152Field goal17–21
NEQ2 5:46962Field goal17–24
INDQ2 1:54945Missed field goal17–24
NEQ3 15:001076Touchdown17–31
INDQ3 11:07741Punt17–31
NEQ3 7:09416Punt17–31
INDQ3 4:533-2Turnover17–37
NEQ3 3:28124Touchdown17–38
INDQ3 3:22942Opp touchdown17–45
INDQ4 14:47574Touchdown24–45
NEQ4 12:32780Touchdown24–52
INDQ4 9:0538Punt24–52
NEQ4 7:37739Touchdown24–59
INDQ4 3:55735Turnover24–59
NEQ4 2:1731Punt24–59
INDQ4 0:28120End of half24–59

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck27/5033423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard16724.50
Delone Carter22110.51
Donald Brown4174.30
Robert Hughes155.00
Andrew Luck144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton691002
Reggie Wayne718720
Dwayne Allen611690
LaVon Brazill24460
Donnie Avery34340
Vick Ballard1170
Donald Brown2260
Nathan Palmer0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3533130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julian Edelman14747.00
Shane Vereen11403.61
Stevan Ridley13282.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski771372
Wes Welker711800
Julian Edelman57581
Brandon Lloyd47450
Shane Vereen13110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.10