2012 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.018
- 46.4%Success rate41.0%
- +0.234EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.038
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- +5.71CPOE-4.01
- 44.9%Third-down rate35.9%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.31Points / drive1.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/32 | 353 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Michael Turner | 13 | 17 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 9 | 147 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 19/30 | 256 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 5 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.31