2012 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·23

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.018
  • 46.4%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.038
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +5.71CPOE-4.01
  • 44.9%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
ATLQ1 15:001272Field goal3–0
TBQ1 7:381081Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 1:121075Touchdown10–7
TBQ2 10:255-3Punt10–7
ATLQ2 7:1336Turnover10–7
TBQ2 5:47427Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 3:371186Missed field goal10–10
TBQ3 15:001262Field goal10–13
ATLQ3 8:37180Touchdown17–13
TBQ3 8:2639Punt17–13
ATLQ3 6:4133Punt17–13
TBQ3 5:121093Touchdown17–20
ATLQ4 14:56616Turnover17–20
TBQ4 11:2336Field goal17–23
ATLQ4 10:28762Touchdown24–23
TBQ4 7:55842Missed field goal24–23
ATLQ4 3:32724Missed field goal24–23
TBQ4 0:0829End of half24–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3235311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers10494.91
Michael Turner13171.31
Matt Ryan11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones691471
Tony Gonzalez55620
Roddy White57570
Jacquizz Rodgers22300
Michael Turner33130
Harry Douglas23110

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman19/3025600
Mike Williams1/12800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin21502.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson57960
Tiquan Underwood59770
Dallas Clark44650
Mike Williams35280
Doug Martin22130
Luke Stocker1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.31