2012 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

14·42

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.176
  • 43.9%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.282
  • -0.046EPA / rush+0.031
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.02CPOE+1.48
  • 38.1%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.71
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
HOUQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:39851Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:27859Turnover0–7
NEQ1 5:30682Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 2:494-6Punt0–14
NEQ2 15:00944Touchdown0–21
HOUQ2 11:0136Punt0–21
NEQ2 9:5138Punt0–21
HOUQ2 8:321056Turnover on downs0–21
NEQ2 4:4444Punt0–21
HOUQ2 3:26523Turnover on downs0–21
NEQ2 1:5237Punt0–21
HOUQ2 0:41420End of half0–21
NEQ3 15:00615Punt0–21
HOUQ3 13:0339Punt0–21
NEQ3 10:54574Touchdown0–28
HOUQ3 9:49982Touchdown7–28
NEQ3 6:1230Punt7–28
HOUQ3 4:5037Punt7–28
NEQ3 3:281156Touchdown7–35
HOUQ4 14:15419Punt7–35
NEQ4 11:471068Touchdown7–42
HOUQ4 7:2344Punt7–42
NEQ4 5:09513Turnover7–42
HOUQ4 3:01625Touchdown14–42
NEQ4 2:003-3End of half14–42

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub19/3223201
T.J. Yates2/41500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster15463.11
Ben Tate8465.80
Justin Forsett372.30
T.J. Yates111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson810950
Arian Foster46390
Lestar Jean25310
James Casey11300
Owen Daniels23240
DeVier Posey12190
Justin Forsett11140
Kevin Walter0300
Ben Tate11-10
Keshawn Martin13-40

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/3529640
Ryan Mallett0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley18724.01
Shane Vereen8405.00
Brandon Bolden2115.50
Tom Brady166.00
Danny Woodhead144.00
Ryan Mallett3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd79891
Donte' Stallworth12631
Aaron Hernandez811582
Wes Welker39520
Danny Woodhead23340
Visanthe Shiancoe0100
Shane Vereen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.61