2012 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

17·29

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.069
  • 45.1%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.46CPOE-0.02
  • 42.3%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.89
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00569Field goal0–3
INDQ1 11:4735Punt0–3
HOUQ1 10:351357Touchdown0–10
INDQ1 4:51106Punt0–10
HOUQ2 14:523-3Punt0–10
INDQ2 13:17732Turnover0–10
HOUQ2 10:0236Punt0–10
INDQ2 8:22726Field goal3–10
HOUQ2 6:12735Field goal3–13
INDQ2 3:5059Opp touchdown3–20
INDQ2 1:46274Touchdown10–20
HOUQ2 1:07544Missed field goal10–20
INDQ3 15:0034Punt10–20
HOUQ3 13:531078Field goal10–23
INDQ3 7:33975Touchdown17–23
HOUQ3 2:32727Punt17–23
INDQ4 13:313-5Punt17–23
HOUQ4 11:54721Field goal17–26
INDQ4 8:30825Punt17–26
HOUQ4 4:45883Field goal17–29
INDQ4 1:05321End of half17–29

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck13/2718620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard181055.80
Andrew Luck2105.00
Mewelde Moore461.50
Dwayne Allen133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton36781
Donnie Avery35370
Dwayne Allen33361
Coby Fleener11210
Reggie Wayne38140
Vick Ballard0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub23/3126110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster271656.10
Ben Tate5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson11131511
DeVier Posey33460
Owen Daniels47400
Kevin Walter22110
James Casey1190
Arian Foster2240
Garrett Graham0200
Lestar Jean0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.15