Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.069
- 45.1%Success rate43.9%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.46CPOE-0.02
- 42.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.62Points / drive1.89
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 13/27 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 23/31 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 27 | 165 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 11 | 13 | 151 | 1 |
| DeVier Posey | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.15