Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.035
- 43.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.02CPOE-4.46
- 38.1%Third-down rate42.3%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.89Points / drive1.62
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 24/36 | 275 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 16 | 96 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 12 | 17 | 141 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| James Casey | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 14/28 | 191 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 27 | 78 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 6 | 111 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 12 | 40 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75