2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

16·28

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.9%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.02CPOE-4.46
  • 38.1%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.62
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:001470Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 7:511353Field goal3–7
INDQ1 0:06613Punt3–7
HOUQ2 12:50444Field goal6–7
INDQ2 10:22927Punt6–7
HOUQ2 6:12518Turnover6–7
INDQ2 4:05639Touchdown6–14
HOUQ2 2:0039Punt6–14
INDQ2 1:18611Punt6–14
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half6–14
HOUQ3 15:001379Touchdown13–14
INDQ3 9:2531Punt13–14
HOUQ3 7:50655Field goal16–20
INDQ3 5:2200Touchdown16–21
HOUQ3 5:103-1Punt16–21
INDQ3 3:2133Punt16–21
HOUQ3 2:20955Missed field goal16–21
INDQ4 13:13467Touchdown16–28
HOUQ4 11:22541Turnover16–28
INDQ4 9:461437End of half16–28

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub24/3627502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster16966.01
Ben Tate273.50
Matt Schaub2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson12171410
Kevin Walter35510
Owen Daniels34270
Arian Foster23230
DeVier Posey12160
James Casey23110
Garrett Graham1160
Lestar Jean0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck14/2819120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard27782.91
Dwayne Allen122.00
Andrew Luck510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton461111
Reggie Wayne412400
Dwayne Allen23210
Mewelde Moore1190
Vick Ballard2390
Coby Fleener1211
Donnie Avery0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.75