2012 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
46
Model margin
+6.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.091
- 41.0%Success rate46.4%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- -4.01CPOE+5.71
- 35.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.74Points / drive2.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 19/35 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 28 | 142 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/44 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.37