2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

22·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

46

Model margin

+6.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.091
  • 41.0%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -4.01CPOE+5.71
  • 35.9%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.31
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:49860Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 6:24862Field goal3–3
TBQ1 2:24627Punt3–3
ATLQ2 14:5339Punt3–3
TBQ2 12:38764Touchdown10–3
ATLQ2 8:43727Punt10–3
TBQ2 6:06622Field goal13–3
ATLQ2 3:03437Punt13–3
TBQ2 1:4132Punt13–3
ATLQ2 1:114-7Turnover on downs13–3
TBQ3 15:001056Field goal16–3
ATLQ3 10:47517Punt16–3
TBQ3 7:55613Turnover16–3
ATLQ3 4:26221Touchdown16–10
TBQ3 3:45480Touchdown22–10
ATLQ3 1:4339Punt22–10
TBQ3 0:2945Punt22–10
ATLQ4 13:5435Punt22–10
TBQ4 12:2530Punt22–10
ATLQ4 11:231047Touchdown22–17
TBQ4 7:02615Punt22–17
ATLQ4 3:44714Turnover on downs22–17
TBQ4 2:02422End of half22–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman19/3522211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin281425.11
Josh Freeman111.00
Tiquan Underwood111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams610651
Vincent Jackson37500
Luke Stocker35500
Tiquan Underwood24270
Doug Martin45180
Dallas Clark0100
D.J. Ware0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4423810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers5285.60
Michael Turner6183.01
Matt Ryan2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones36560
Jacquizz Rodgers88500
Roddy White510420
Tony Gonzalez59410
Harry Douglas48211

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.37