2012 · DIV

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·45

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

45

Model margin

+2.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.105
  • 46.3%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.111EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.0%Explosive rate12.9%
  • +5.43CPOE+5.02
  • 42.8%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 69.8%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.92
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
SFQ1 15:00419Opp touchdown7–0
SFQ1 12:48975Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 9:0137Punt7–7
SFQ1 8:05947Punt7–7
GBQ1 3:13780Touchdown14–7
SFQ1 0:29635Punt14–7
SFQ2 11:43312Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 10:5955Turnover14–14
SFQ2 9:19863Touchdown14–21
GBQ2 5:26660Touchdown21–21
SFQ2 2:331062Field goal21–24
GBQ3 15:003-3Punt21–24
SFQ3 12:5832Punt21–24
GBQ3 11:56879Field goal24–24
SFQ3 8:25380Touchdown24–31
GBQ3 7:07621Punt24–31
SFQ3 5:00988Touchdown24–38
GBQ4 14:57838Punt24–38
SFQ4 11:281298Touchdown24–45
GBQ4 3:341265Touchdown31–45
SFQ4 0:5700End of half31–45

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/3925721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DuJuan Harris11534.81
Aaron Rodgers3289.30
Randall Cobb22311.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones46871
Greg Jennings68541
Jordy Nelson57460
Jermichael Finley45350
Randall Cobb56240
DuJuan Harris24110
Tom Crabtree0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick17/3126321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick1618111.32
Frank Gore231195.21
LaMichael James3217.00
Anthony Dixon122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree9111192
Frank Gore22480
Vernon Davis15440
Randy Moss24250
Delanie Walker15170
LaMichael James1170
Ted Ginn1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.53