Closing spread
SF -3
Total
45
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.105
- 46.3%Success rate47.9%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.0%Explosive rate12.9%
- +5.43CPOE+5.02
- 42.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 69.8%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.11Points / drive1.92
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/39 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 17/31 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16 | 181 | 11.3 | 2 |
| Frank Gore | 23 | 119 | 5.2 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 9 | 11 | 119 | 2 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.53