Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.176
- 43.9%Success rate50.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.031
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.02CPOE+1.48
- 38.1%Third-down rate48.4%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.89Points / drive2.71
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 34/51 | 343 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 9 | 15 | 81 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 7 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| DeVier Posey | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| James Casey | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/40 | 344 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 13 | 131 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 6 | 83 | 2 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.09