Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Texans
- ProbableAlan BallCBFoot· Limited
- ProbableAntoine CaldwellGBack· Limited
- ProbableAntonio SmithDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableDerek NewtonTKnee· Limited
- ProbableShaun CodyDTBack· Limited
- ProbableWade SmithGKnee· Limited
- ProbableBen TateRBFoot· Full
- ProbableBrooks ReedLBGroin· Full
- ProbableGarrett GrahamTEConcussion· Full
- ProbableGlover QuinSShoulder· Full
- ProbableJohnathan JosephCBIllness· Full
- ProbableJustin ForsettRBKnee· Full
- ProbableOwen DanielsTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableShiloh KeoSAnkle· Full
- ProbableT.J. YatesQBright Elbow· Full
Patriots
- LimitedAaron HernandezTEAnkle
- LimitedAqib TalibCBHip
- LimitedBrandon LloydWRKnee
- LimitedBrandon SpikesLBKnee
- LimitedChandler JonesDEAnkle
- LimitedDan ConnollyGBack
- LimitedDont'a HightowerLBHamstring
- LimitedJerod MayoLBElbow
- LimitedLogan MankinsGAnkle
- LimitedMike RiveraLBAnkle
- LimitedNate EbnerSHamstring
- LimitedPatrick ChungSShoulder
- LimitedRob NinkovichDEHip
- LimitedTracy WhiteLBElbow
- LimitedWes WelkerWRAnkle
- ProbableAlfonzo DennardCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarquice ColeCBFinger· Full
- ProbableNick McDonaldCShoulder· Full
- ProbableRob GronkowskiTEForearm· Full
- ProbableTrevor ScottDEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.176
- 43.9%Success rate50.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.031
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.02CPOE+1.48
- 38.1%Third-down rate48.4%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.89Points / drive2.71
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:38 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:27 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:49 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 4:29 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 1:28 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:07 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 10:16 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 6:34 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q2 3:38 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q2 1:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:24 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| HOU | Q3 11:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–24 |
| NE | Q3 9:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–24 |
| HOU | Q3 8:50 | 9 | 58 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| NE | Q3 4:14 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| HOU | Q3 1:21 | 8 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 13–37 |
| NE | Q4 13:13 | 1 | 33 | Touchdown | 13–38 |
| HOU | Q4 13:07 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 20–38 |
| NE | Q4 11:35 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 20–38 |
| HOU | Q4 9:58 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–38 |
| NE | Q4 5:11 | 8 | 23 | Field goal | 28–41 |
| HOU | Q4 1:14 | 5 | 40 | End of half | 28–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 34/51 | 343 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 9 | 15 | 81 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 7 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| DeVier Posey | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| James Casey | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/40 | 344 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 13 | 131 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 6 | 83 | 2 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.09