Closing spread
NE -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.076
- 46.7%Success rate39.7%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.037
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.37CPOE-3.82
- 37.9%Third-down rate33.7%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 2.05Points / drive1.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/52 | 288 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 14 | 101 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 10 | 14 | 104 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 9 | 79 | 2 |
| Shane Vereen | 7 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 4 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Boyce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 18/27 | 150 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73