2013 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

23·21

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 65°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NE -10

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.076
  • 46.7%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.037
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.37CPOE-3.82
  • 37.9%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:00737Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:0523Turnover0–0
NEQ1 11:33316Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:46623Punt7–0
NEQ1 8:30820Field goal10–0
BUFQ1 4:47612Punt10–0
NEQ1 2:26728Punt10–0
BUFQ2 13:51528Punt10–0
NEQ2 11:4237Punt10–0
BUFQ2 10:4237Punt10–0
NEQ2 9:53523Opp touchdown10–7
NEQ2 8:25631Punt10–7
BUFQ2 5:05519Turnover10–7
NEQ2 3:45432Touchdown17–7
BUFQ2 1:5538Punt17–7
NEQ2 1:1126Turnover17–7
BUFQ2 1:03237Touchdown17–14
NEQ2 0:3400End of half17–14
BUFQ3 15:001180Touchdown17–21
NEQ3 11:031579Turnover17–21
BUFQ3 4:12736Punt17–21
NEQ3 1:1535Punt17–21
BUFQ3 0:283-2Punt17–21
NEQ4 14:17965Field goal20–21
BUFQ4 10:48622Punt20–21
NEQ4 8:41729Punt20–21
BUFQ4 5:5134Punt20–21
NEQ4 4:311056Field goal23–21
BUFQ4 0:0519End of half23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/5228821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen141017.20
Stevan Ridley9465.10
LeGarrette Blount7152.10
Tom Brady4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola10141040
Julian Edelman79792
Shane Vereen710580
Kenbrell Thompkins414420
Michael Hoomanawanui1250
Zach Sudfeld0100
Josh Boyce0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel18/2715020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson13675.20
C.J. Spiller17412.40
EJ Manuel3237.70
Trevor Graham155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Jackson45410
Steve Johnson36391
Scott Chandler46380
Robert Woods12181
C.J. Spiller56140
Trevor Graham0100
Marquise Goodwin1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -104.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.73