Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.050
- 44.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.190EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- +5.19CPOE+1.02
- 38.4%Third-down rate44.3%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.17Points / drive2.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/33 | 320 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/23 | 125 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 6 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30