2013 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

12·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.050
  • 44.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.056
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +5.19CPOE+1.02
  • 38.4%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.17Points / drive2.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
CARQ1 15:001036Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:5046Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:5436Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:4630Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:18418Punt0–0
SEAQ1 3:231584Field goal3–0
CARQ2 9:361180Touchdown3–7
SEAQ2 3:13946Turnover3–7
CARQ2 0:3517End of half3–7
SEAQ3 15:00422Punt3–7
SEAQ3 12:4937Punt3–7
CARQ3 10:59624Punt3–7
SEAQ3 6:36864Field goal6–7
CARQ3 2:22840Punt6–7
SEAQ4 12:581-1Touchdown6–7
SEAQ4 12:2316Touchdown6–7
SEAQ4 11:44111Touchdown6–7
SEAQ4 11:05358Touchdown12–7
CARQ4 10:13942Turnover12–7
SEAQ4 5:25970End of half12–7

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson25/3332010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17432.50
Robert Turbin3175.70
Russell Wilson571.40
Doug Baldwin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin78910
Golden Tate46510
Jermaine Kearse22491
Zach Miller34420
Sidney Rice23350
Robert Turbin22130
Marshawn Lynch2390
Stephen Williams0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2312510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams17865.10
Cam Newton5387.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen510560
Steve Smith68511
DeAngelo Williams33140
Ted Ginn11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30