Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.020
- 42.1%Success rate41.6%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.02CPOE+3.74
- 44.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.03Points / drive1.71
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/39 | 308 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/28 | 175 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.47