2013 · Week 5

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

6·22

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.020
  • 42.1%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.109
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.02CPOE+3.74
  • 44.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.71
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00523Turnover0–0
CARQ1 12:53976Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 7:27621Punt3–0
CARQ1 4:29933Punt3–0
ARIQ2 14:1439Punt3–0
CARQ2 12:243-9Punt3–0
ARIQ2 11:07632Field goal3–3
CARQ2 8:291065Turnover on downs3–3
ARIQ2 2:1230Punt3–3
CARQ2 1:40337Turnover3–3
ARIQ2 0:54433Turnover3–3
CARQ2 0:32457Field goal6–3
CARQ3 15:00727Punt6–3
ARIQ3 11:231165Touchdown6–10
CARQ3 5:482-5Safety6–12
ARIQ3 5:28516Turnover6–12
CARQ3 2:37618Turnover6–12
ARIQ4 14:4934Punt6–12
CARQ4 13:11514Punt6–12
ARIQ4 10:011041Field goal6–15
CARQ4 3:38521Turnover6–15
ARIQ4 2:3839Touchdown6–22
CARQ4 2:23519Turnover6–22
ARIQ4 1:4700End of half6–22

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3930803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams12393.30
Cam Newton4256.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen56790
Ted Ginn45780
Steve Smith410600
Brandon LaFell49470
DeAngelo Williams23300
Kenjon Barner1250
Armanti Edwards0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer19/2817513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington7527.40
Rashard Mendenhall17432.51
Alfonso Smith1-2-2.00
Carson Palmer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd57610
Larry Fitzgerald36430
Andre Ellington44310
Alfonso Smith33200
Jim Dray22131
Rashard Mendenhall2270
Andre Roberts0100
Rob Housler0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.47