Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
54.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.205EPA / play+0.047
- 50.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.346EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.029EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- +6.21CPOE-1.44
- 47.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 81.1%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 2.85Points / drive1.89
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/49 | 386 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 13 | 150 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 12 | 96 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/38 | 228 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 11 | 27 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.03