2013 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

33·39

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

54.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapColts
  • +0.205EPA / play+0.047
  • 50.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.346EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.029EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +6.21CPOE-1.44
  • 47.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 81.1%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.89
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 14-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–IND
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:5939Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:21511Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:02256Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 8:16965Field goal7–3
DENQ1 4:0539Punt7–3
INDQ1 2:5835Punt7–9
INDQ1 1:27111Touchdown7–10
DENQ1 1:20946Touchdown14–10
INDQ2 11:5637Punt14–10
DENQ2 9:333-6Safety14–12
INDQ2 8:52766Touchdown14–19
DENQ2 5:5030Punt14–19
INDQ2 4:5438Punt14–19
DENQ2 4:04721Punt14–19
INDQ2 1:35650Touchdown14–26
DENQ2 0:1000End of half14–26
DENQ3 15:0049Punt14–26
INDQ3 13:4036Punt14–26
DENQ3 12:1535Punt14–26
INDQ3 10:58613Punt14–26
DENQ3 8:0838Punt14–26
INDQ3 6:49427Touchdown14–33
DENQ3 5:001055Field goal17–33
INDQ3 0:42646Field goal17–36
DENQ4 12:59380Touchdown23–36
INDQ4 12:1121Turnover23–36
DENQ4 11:26823Touchdown30–36
INDQ4 8:4449Punt30–36
DENQ4 7:0710Turnover30–36
INDQ4 6:593-3Field goal30–39
DENQ4 5:57882Turnover30–39
INDQ4 3:0354Punt30–39
DENQ4 1:28633Field goal33–39
INDQ4 0:1200End of half33–39

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning29/4938631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno15402.71
Ronnie Hillman4256.30
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker8131501
Wes Welker712960
Demaryius Thomas49821
Julius Thomas56411
Knowshon Moreno3690
Jacob Tamme1170
Ronnie Hillman1110

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/3822830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson14372.60
Darrius Heyward-Bey13030.00
Andrew Luck4297.31
Donald Brown11232.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne58500
Darrius Heyward-Bey47441
Donald Brown33420
Coby Fleener55381
T.Y. Hilton211270
Jack Doyle1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.03