2013 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

31·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -6.5

Total

39

Model margin

-1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.050EPA / play-0.089
  • 42.1%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.147
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.02CPOE-1.72
  • 44.3%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:361682Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 4:44751Field goal7–3
CARQ1 1:24680Touchdown14–3
TBQ2 12:42523Punt14–3
CARQ2 9:5334Punt14–3
TBQ2 8:52947Field goal14–6
CARQ2 4:03739Punt14–6
TBQ2 0:53430End of half14–6
CARQ3 15:00512Punt14–6
TBQ3 12:0631Punt14–6
CARQ3 11:03953Touchdown21–6
TBQ3 6:27514Punt21–6
CARQ3 3:3531Punt21–6
CARQ3 1:56429Touchdown28–6
TBQ4 14:55622Punt28–6
CARQ4 13:07524Punt28–6
TBQ4 8:5940Turnover on downs28–6
CARQ4 7:5135Field goal31–6
TBQ4 6:141181Touchdown31–13
CARQ4 2:5300Turnover on downs31–13
TBQ4 2:511322Turnover on downs31–13
CARQ4 0:5300End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3222120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton11504.51
DeAngelo Williams8435.41
Kenjon Barner111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn56800
Steve Smith47420
Brandon LaFell35230
Greg Olsen34211
Richie Brockel11120
DeAngelo Williams1380
Domenik Hixon1140
Kenjon Barner1120

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon30/5127510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike James10393.90
Brian Leonard177.00
Mike Glennon320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson513790
Timothy Wright58481
Tiquan Underwood34470
Brian Leonard67320
Mike James45250
Mike Williams36200
Eric Page13130
Skye Dawson1190
Tom Crabtree1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.27