2013 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play-0.089
- 42.1%Success rate37.6%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.147
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.02CPOE-1.72
- 44.3%Third-down rate31.1%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 2.03Points / drive1.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/32 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Richie Brockel | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 30/51 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 5 | 13 | 79 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 5 | 8 | 48 | 1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike James | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Eric Page | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Skye Dawson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.27