2013 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·34

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CAR -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.050
  • 44.7%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.056
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +2.86CPOE+1.02
  • 42.4%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.03
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:0231Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:5721Turnover0–0
CARQ1 10:08835Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 6:131480Field goal3–7
CARQ2 14:09731Turnover3–7
ATLQ2 10:10411Punt3–7
CARQ2 7:56634Touchdown3–14
ATLQ2 4:14680Touchdown10–14
CARQ2 1:551151Turnover10–14
ATLQ2 0:1400End of half10–14
CARQ3 15:00743Field goal10–17
ATLQ3 12:0039Punt10–17
CARQ3 10:071033Punt10–17
ATLQ3 5:02345Turnover10–17
CARQ3 3:28638Punt10–17
ATLQ3 0:18414Punt10–17
CARQ4 13:29761Touchdown10–24
ATLQ4 9:00214Opp touchdown10–31
ATLQ4 8:303-5Punt10–31
CARQ4 6:38946Field goal10–34
ATLQ4 1:13532Turnover10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/2721913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson13574.40
Jacquizz Rodgers5193.80
Matt Ryan221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas35820
Tony Gonzalez67811
Jacquizz Rodgers66250
Steven Jackson34190
Darius Johnson12100
Drew Davis1220
Patrick DiMarco0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3724912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart9434.80
DeAngelo Williams13423.20
Cam Newton5224.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell69740
Greg Olsen45661
Steve Smith410520
Jonathan Stewart33220
DeAngelo Williams22120
Ted Ginn13100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.59