Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.050
- 44.7%Success rate42.1%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.056
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.86CPOE+1.02
- 42.4%Third-down rate44.3%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.70Points / drive2.03
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/27 | 219 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/37 | 249 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.59