2013 · Week 12

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

31·34

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 22°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

54

Model margin

+0.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • +0.205EPA / play+0.062
  • 50.2%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.346EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.029EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +6.21CPOE-1.37
  • 47.1%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 81.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.05
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NE
DENQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:08836Opp touchdown7–0
NEQ1 9:542-5Turnover7–0
DENQ1 9:22210Touchdown14–0
NEQ1 8:54320Turnover14–0
DENQ1 7:26935Field goal17–0
NEQ1 2:5759Punt17–0
DENQ1 1:18727Punt17–0
NEQ2 12:48649Turnover on downs17–0
DENQ2 10:381180Touchdown24–0
NEQ2 6:1058Punt24–0
DENQ2 3:34517Punt24–0
NEQ2 1:12717Punt24–0
NEQ2 0:0510End of half24–0
NEQ3 15:00880Touchdown24–7
DENQ3 11:21620Turnover24–7
NEQ3 8:19632Touchdown24–14
DENQ3 5:40619Punt24–14
NEQ3 2:01565Touchdown24–21
DENQ3 0:19311Turnover24–21
NEQ4 14:32330Touchdown24–28
DENQ4 13:1332Punt24–28
NEQ4 12:221239Field goal24–31
DENQ4 7:371379Touchdown31–31
NEQ4 3:0639Punt31–31
DENQ4 1:34511Punt31–31
NEQ4 0:2829End of half31–31
DENOT632Punt31–31
NEOT519Punt31–31
DENOT1050Punt31–31
NEOT423Punt31–31
NEOT20Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning19/3615021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno372246.11
Montee Ball7405.70
C.J. Anderson3165.30
Peyton Manning100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme55471
Demaryius Thomas49411
Wes Welker48310
Montee Ball33170
Knowshon Moreno1160
Eric Decker1450
Virgil Green1230
Joel Dreessen0100
C.J. Anderson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/5034430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Bolden13584.51
Shane Vereen10313.10
Stevan Ridley4143.50
LeGarrette Blount2136.50
Tom Brady200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman9111102
Rob Gronkowski710901
Shane Vereen811600
Kenbrell Thompkins69560
Danny Amendola36170
Brandon Bolden11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.48