Closing spread
NE -1
Total
54
Model margin
+0.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.205EPA / play+0.062
- 50.2%Success rate46.7%
- +0.346EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.029EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- +6.21CPOE-1.37
- 47.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 81.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.85Points / drive2.05
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/36 | 150 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 37 | 224 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/50 | 344 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 11 | 110 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 10 | 90 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 6 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.48