2013 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

6·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CAR -7.5

Total

41

Model margin

+6.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.050
  • 37.6%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.72CPOE+1.02
  • 31.1%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.34Points / drive2.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:37759Field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:10583Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 6:0830Punt3–7
CARQ1 4:5930Turnover3–7
TBQ1 4:4047Field goal6–7
CARQ1 2:1439Punt6–7
TBQ1 0:05760Turnover6–7
CARQ2 12:281376Field goal6–10
TBQ2 6:233-9Punt6–10
CARQ2 4:10749Touchdown6–17
TBQ2 0:2500End of half6–17
TBQ3 15:00426Turnover6–17
CARQ3 13:00478Touchdown6–24
TBQ3 10:50950Missed field goal6–24
CARQ3 5:37640Turnover6–24
TBQ3 2:2130Punt6–24
CARQ3 0:251266Field goal6–27
TBQ4 6:4034Punt6–27
CARQ4 5:2749Punt6–27
TBQ4 4:34510Turnover on downs6–27
CARQ4 2:38411End of half6–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon14/2118001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey17633.70
Mike Glennon231.50
Vincent Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson35750
Tiquan Underwood34510
Chris Owusu13200
Timothy Wright23170
Brian Leonard22100
Bobby Rainey2380

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/2926322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton56813.61
Jonathan Stewart14392.80
Kenjon Barner561.20
Derek Anderson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen57850
Steve Smith34510
Ted Ginn24471
Brandon LaFell37361
Jonathan Stewart2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.24