2013 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
CAR -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.050
- 37.6%Success rate42.1%
- -0.049EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.72CPOE+1.02
- 31.1%Third-down rate44.3%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.34Points / drive2.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 14/21 | 180 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/29 | 263 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.24