Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.062
- 39.7%Success rate46.7%
- -0.107EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.82CPOE-1.37
- 33.7%Third-down rate37.9%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.33Points / drive2.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Lewis | 16/29 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 19 | 105 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Thad Lewis | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/24 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 24 | 189 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Stevan Ridley | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.12