Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.007
- 42.1%Success rate44.7%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.137
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.02CPOE+2.86
- 44.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.03Points / drive1.70
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/27 | 149 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 75 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin McNutt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/40 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 14 | 91 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.46