2013 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.007
  • 42.1%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.137
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.02CPOE+2.86
  • 44.3%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.70
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001180Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:4330Punt0–7
ATLQ1 7:4032Punt0–7
CARQ1 6:05612Punt0–7
ATLQ1 2:3531Punt0–7
CARQ1 0:11619Turnover0–7
ATLQ2 13:08816Field goal0–10
CARQ2 10:00362Turnover0–10
ATLQ2 8:432-2Opp touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 7:57741Punt7–10
CARQ2 4:171479Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 0:1900End of half14–10
CARQ3 15:00427Punt14–10
ATLQ3 12:39779Touchdown14–17
CARQ3 9:501061Touchdown21–17
ATLQ3 4:203-8Punt21–17
CARQ3 2:1934Punt21–17
ATLQ3 0:431667Field goal21–20
CARQ4 7:10616Punt21–20
ATLQ4 3:213-8Punt21–20
CARQ4 1:4733Punt21–20
ATLQ4 1:20740End of half21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2714921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton12726.00
DeAngelo Williams10333.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAngelo Williams22750
Greg Olsen68421
Domenik Hixon23160
Ted Ginn2561
Brandon LaFell0500
Marvin McNutt0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4028021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson13413.20
Matt Ryan2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White814911
Harry Douglas79580
Tony Gonzalez44560
Steven Jackson57530
Darius Johnson1340
Patrick DiMarco1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.46