2014 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

10·29

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 58°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

43

Model margin

+2.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.076
  • 48.7%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.063EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.14CPOE-1.80
  • 41.5%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.48
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00740Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:45414Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:33949Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 4:47514Punt0–3
BUFQ1 2:12522Field goal0–6
MIAQ1 0:224-8Punt0–6
BUFQ2 12:37540Field goal0–9
MIAQ2 10:22510Punt0–9
BUFQ2 8:44416Punt0–9
MIAQ2 7:3133Punt0–9
BUFQ2 5:19630Punt0–9
MIAQ2 2:21629End of half0–9
MIAQ3 15:001264Field goal3–15
BUFQ3 9:3500Touchdown3–16
MIAQ3 9:231559Touchdown10–16
BUFQ3 3:15677Touchdown10–23
MIAQ3 0:13311Punt10–23
BUFQ4 14:46734Field goal10–26
MIAQ4 10:32928Turnover on downs10–26
BUFQ4 7:253-2Punt10–26
BUFQ4 5:4534Missed field goal10–26
MIAQ4 4:1546Turnover on downs10–26
BUFQ4 3:3237Field goal10–29
MIAQ4 1:54960Turnover10–29
BUFQ4 0:1000End of half10–29

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill31/4924111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller11464.20
Damien Williams5193.80
Ryan Tannehill4112.80
Knowshon Moreno144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace58561
Jarvis Landry56490
Brian Hartline58360
Charles Clay78310
Orleans Darkwa33310
Brandon Gibson34270
Lamar Miller2570
Rishard Matthews1540
Dion Sims0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel16/2620210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller12695.80
Fred Jackson12242.00
EJ Manuel461.50
Marquise Goodwin144.00
Anthony Dixon231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins8111171
Fred Jackson24270
Scott Chandler22270
Chris Gragg12140
C.J. Spiller1190
Robert Woods1350
Mike Williams1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.67
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.63