Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.076
- 48.7%Success rate41.0%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.14CPOE-1.80
- 41.5%Third-down rate37.3%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.97Points / drive1.48
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 31/49 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 7 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 16/26 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 8 | 11 | 117 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.63