2014 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

BAL -2

Total

43

Model margin

-0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.069
  • 44.2%Success rate38.1%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.130
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.77CPOE-7.11
  • 41.5%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.44
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:001160Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 9:111387Touchdown3–7
BALQ1 3:1531Punt3–7
CLEQ1 2:1814Punt3–7
CLEQ1 1:40211Punt3–7
CLEQ1 1:1010Punt3–7
CLEQ1 0:4517Punt3–7
CLEQ1 0:00222Punt3–7
BALQ2 13:291175Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 7:24617Punt10–7
BALQ2 3:52740Punt10–7
CLEQ2 0:2016End of half10–7
CLEQ3 15:00971Touchdown10–14
BALQ3 10:01885Touchdown17–14
CLEQ3 5:041080Touchdown17–21
BALQ3 0:133-2Turnover17–21
CLEQ4 14:433-2Missed field goal17–21
BALQ4 13:26539Turnover on downs17–21
CLEQ4 10:47566Missed field goal17–21
BALQ4 7:46837Field goal20–21
CLEQ4 5:0033Punt20–21
BALQ4 4:0155Punt20–21
CLEQ4 2:1933Punt20–21
BALQ4 1:58338Field goal23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco19/3121711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lorenzo Taliaferro18915.11
Justin Forsett11635.70
Joe Flacco461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith571010
Torrey Smith28250
Marlon Brown11150
Dennis Pitta33120
Owen Daniels1180
Justin Forsett4520
Jacoby Jones0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer19/2529010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell11555.01
Terrance West12363.01
Ray Agnew100.00
Brian Hoyer3-2-0.70
Travis Benjamin1-2-2.00
Taylor Gabriel2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins710870
Taylor Gabriel22810
Miles Austin67511
Travis Benjamin11430
Jordan Cameron13230
Terrance West2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.26