Closing spread
BAL -2
Total
43
Model margin
-0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.069
- 44.2%Success rate38.1%
- +0.149EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.130
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.77CPOE-7.11
- 41.5%Third-down rate29.9%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.21Points / drive1.44
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/31 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 19/25 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ray Agnew | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 7 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 81 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.26