2014 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

14·56

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.007
  • 38.5%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.161
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.50CPOE+1.47
  • 36.6%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.87
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00670Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 12:0336Punt0–7
ATLQ1 10:071173Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 5:04416Touchdown0–14
TBQ1 3:0330Opp touchdown0–21
TBQ1 2:38213Turnover0–21
ATLQ1 1:48530Touchdown0–28
TBQ2 14:534-2Punt0–28
ATLQ2 12:44761Turnover0–28
TBQ2 8:5034Opp touchdown0–35
TBQ2 7:06437Punt0–35
ATLQ2 4:5145Punt0–35
TBQ2 3:1565Punt0–35
ATLQ2 1:24545Missed field goal0–35
TBQ2 0:0110End of half0–35
TBQ3 15:00527Turnover0–35
ATLQ3 13:0028Turnover0–35
TBQ3 12:093-3Punt0–35
ATLQ3 11:02567Touchdown0–42
TBQ3 8:2310Turnover0–48
ATLQ3 8:1812Touchdown0–49
TBQ3 8:11637Punt0–49
ATLQ3 4:59580Touchdown0–56
TBQ3 1:471692Touchdown7–56
ATLQ4 8:4632Opp touchdown14–56
ATLQ4 7:07929Punt14–56
TBQ4 1:4531End of half14–56

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon17/2412110
Josh McCown5/125801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey11413.70
Mike Glennon3196.30
Mike James441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Rainey78640
Mike Evans47520
Brandon Myers55330
Vincent Jackson29151
Luke Stocker22150
Robert Herron1350
Mike James11-50

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/2428630
T.J. Yates3/46401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson14543.91
Antone Smith45012.51
Devin Hester12020.01
Devonta Freeman11121.10
Jacquizz Rodgers561.20
Matt Ryan122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9111612
Eric Weems45690
Patrick DiMarco33350
Devin Hester11250
Levine Toilolo22250
Harry Douglas22141
Courtney Roby12110
Devonta Freeman1170
Jacquizz Rodgers1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.94