2014 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.007
- 38.5%Success rate44.0%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.161
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.50CPOE+1.47
- 36.6%Third-down rate44.6%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.87
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 17/24 | 121 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 5/12 | 58 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike James | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 9 | 15 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Herron | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/24 | 286 | 3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 3/4 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Antone Smith | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 11 | 161 | 2 |
| Eric Weems | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Courtney Roby | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.94