Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play-0.031
- 45.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.10CPOE-2.14
- 42.2%Third-down rate38.0%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 2.01Points / drive1.63
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 25/44 | 370 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 9 | 223 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15/23 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 12 | 99 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13