2014 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

33·28

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.029EPA / play-0.031
  • 45.9%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.120
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.10CPOE-2.14
  • 42.2%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.63
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:59854Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 11:1300Touchdown3–0
INDQ1 11:12254Touchdown10–0
HOUQ1 10:4032Punt10–0
INDQ1 9:15842Touchdown17–0
HOUQ1 7:003-5Punt17–0
INDQ1 5:021168Touchdown24–0
HOUQ2 15:001269Touchdown24–7
INDQ2 9:4310Turnover24–7
HOUQ2 9:28326Touchdown24–14
INDQ2 8:221567Field goal27–14
HOUQ2 1:05513Turnover on downs27–14
INDQ3 15:00733Punt27–14
HOUQ3 11:18422Punt27–14
INDQ3 8:3936Punt27–14
HOUQ3 7:04470Touchdown27–21
INDQ3 5:59780Touchdown33–21
HOUQ3 2:52760Missed field goal33–21
INDQ4 14:19827Opp touchdown33–28
INDQ4 10:3678Punt33–28
HOUQ4 8:13858Turnover33–28
INDQ4 4:38619Punt33–28
HOUQ4 2:15212Turnover33–28
INDQ4 1:4800End of half33–28

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck25/4437031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson17412.41
Ahmad Bradshaw11343.10
Andrew Luck7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton992231
Dwayne Allen37490
Reggie Wayne49350
Ahmad Bradshaw36251
Hakeem Nicks27180
Coby Fleener24111
Jack Doyle2290

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick15/2321210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster201095.52
Alfred Blue3227.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson712991
Damaris Johnson33620
Arian Foster34320
DeAndre Hopkins12120
C.J. Fiedorowicz1170
Garrett Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.13