Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutCameron FlemingTFinger· DNP
- OutNate EbnerSFinger· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon BrownerCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBryan StorkCHead· DNP
- QuestionableDominique EasleyDEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJamie CollinsLBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTom BradyQBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableChandler JonesDEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDevin McCourtySRib· Limited
Bills
- OutChris WilliamsGBack· DNP
- OutMarcus EasleyWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAaron WilliamsSWrist· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon SpikesLBRibs· Limited
- QuestionableDa'Norris SearcySKnee· Limited
- QuestionableFred JacksonRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableKyle WilliamsDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNigel BradhamLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRon BrooksCBNeck· Limited
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.076
- 46.4%Success rate41.0%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.32CPOE-1.80
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.3%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.38Points / drive1.48
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:26 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:46 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:39 | 10 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 0:57 | 3 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q2 14:53 | 6 | 32 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 13:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:41 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q2 8:43 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 3:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 2:15 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NE | Q2 2:09 | 4 | 0 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q2 1:43 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 0:52 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 12 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| NE | Q2 0:06 | 1 | 7 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| BUF | Q3 12:30 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| NE | Q3 5:33 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| BUF | Q3 3:08 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 23–14 |
| NE | Q4 14:50 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 30–14 |
| BUF | Q4 8:42 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 30–22 |
| NE | Q4 5:58 | 9 | 98 | Touchdown | 37–22 |
| BUF | Q4 2:49 | 7 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 37–22 |
| NE | Q4 1:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/37 | 361 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 97 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 94 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 1 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/38 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 6 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58