Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
44
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.076
- 46.4%Success rate41.0%
- +0.173EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.32CPOE-1.80
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.3%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.38Points / drive1.48
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/37 | 361 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 97 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 94 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 1 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/38 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 6 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58