2014 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.111
- 44.0%Success rate38.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.47CPOE-1.50
- 44.6%Third-down rate36.6%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.87Points / drive1.33
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/31 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 11 | 119 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 27/43 | 301 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mike James | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 9 | 125 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 8 | 13 | 75 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 5 | 9 | 30 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.47