2014 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.111
  • 44.0%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.190
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.47CPOE-1.50
  • 44.6%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.33
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:001862Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 6:241368Touchdown7–3
TBQ1 0:51312Punt7–3
ATLQ2 14:021352Field goal10–3
TBQ2 7:09622Punt10–3
ATLQ2 4:0632Punt10–3
TBQ2 2:31886Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 0:46433Field goal13–10
ATLQ3 15:00956Field goal16–10
TBQ3 10:231049Turnover16–10
ATLQ3 5:12310Punt16–10
TBQ3 3:22834Touchdown16–17
ATLQ4 14:181160Touchdown24–17
TBQ4 9:1830Punt24–17
ATLQ4 7:03436Field goal27–17
TBQ4 4:10990Turnover27–17
ATLQ4 1:4936Punt27–17
TBQ4 1:29518Turnover27–17
ATLQ4 0:2100End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3121910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson16815.11
Devonta Freeman3165.30
Matt Ryan393.00
Antone Smith430.80
Jacquizz Rodgers111.00
Devin Hester100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones8111190
Roddy White66721
Steven Jackson22140
Jacquizz Rodgers22110
Devin Hester1450
Harry Douglas0200
Patrick DiMarco0200
Devonta Freeman11-20

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown27/4330122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh McCown5397.80
Charles Sims8232.90
Mike James4164.00
Bobby Rainey6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans791251
Vincent Jackson813750
Bobby Rainey45420
Austin Seferian-Jenkins59301
Charles Sims22170
Louis Murphy12120
Marcus Thigpen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.47