2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

10·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

49

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.029
  • 40.7%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.221
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.14CPOE+1.10
  • 38.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.01
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:52526Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:43633Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:38620Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:3831Opp touchdown7–0
INDQ1 5:563-1Punt7–0
HOUQ1 4:1337Punt7–0
INDQ1 2:47774Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 14:53726Punt7–7
INDQ2 11:07749Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 7:5110Turnover7–7
INDQ2 7:45432Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 6:213-4Punt7–14
INDQ2 4:4755Punt7–14
HOUQ2 2:17746Turnover on downs7–14
INDQ2 0:5743End of half7–14
HOUQ3 15:00314Punt7–14
INDQ3 12:53512Punt7–14
HOUQ3 10:36837Punt7–14
INDQ3 6:20628Punt7–14
HOUQ3 4:101159Field goal10–14
INDQ4 13:403-4Punt10–14
HOUQ4 12:221139Turnover on downs10–14
INDQ4 7:14947Field goal10–17
HOUQ4 2:11719Turnover10–17
INDQ4 1:2800End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage10/1912701
Ryan Fitzpatrick3/63000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster26993.80
Alfred Blue8263.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick3165.30
Tom Savage4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins513770
DeVier Posey11300
Damaris Johnson23210
Arian Foster34180
Ryan Griffin24110

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck18/3418721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron11605.50
Trent Richardson9323.60
Andrew Luck8182.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton48500
Hakeem Nicks22441
Coby Fleener25320
Reggie Wayne45240
Dwayne Allen24161
Dan Herron23120
Trent Richardson2390
Donte Moncrief0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85