Closing spread
IND -7
Total
49
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.029
- 40.7%Success rate45.9%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.221
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.14CPOE+1.10
- 38.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.63Points / drive2.01
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 10/19 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3/6 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 13 | 77 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/34 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85