Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.090
- 41.0%Success rate46.4%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.80CPOE+1.32
- 37.3%Third-down rate45.6%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.48Points / drive2.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 16/23 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 10/17 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 8/16 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.50