2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

17·9

Patriots

New England

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.090
  • 41.0%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.80CPOE+1.32
  • 37.3%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
BUFQ1 15:00680Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 11:5939Punt7–0
BUFQ1 10:47529Punt7–0
NEQ1 8:351271Field goal7–3
BUFQ1 3:021380Touchdown14–3
NEQ2 10:3846Punt14–3
BUFQ2 9:222-4Turnover14–3
NEQ2 8:31718Field goal14–6
BUFQ2 5:07617Field goal17–6
NEQ2 2:14617End of half17–6
NEQ3 15:0032Punt17–6
BUFQ3 13:343-3Punt17–6
NEQ3 12:031265Turnover on downs17–6
BUFQ3 5:51616Punt17–6
NEQ3 2:55427Field goal17–9
BUFQ3 0:37736Punt17–9
NEQ4 11:121237Punt17–9
BUFQ4 4:46920Punt17–9
NEQ4 1:5048Turnover on downs17–9
BUFQ4 0:5400End of half17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton16/2317610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson18583.20
Anthony Dixon7273.91
C.J. Spiller5173.40
Sammy Watkins155.00
Kyle Orton2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins35570
Robert Woods44391
MarQueis Gray33250
Scott Chandler11200
Lee Smith11180
Anthony Dixon1180
Fred Jackson1340
Chris Hogan1330
C.J. Spiller1220

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo10/179000
Tom Brady8/168000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount10626.20
Jimmy Garoppolo4164.00
Brandon Bolden5153.00
Brandon LaFell2136.50
Tom Brady294.50
Shane Vereen210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell46700
Brian Tyms46390
Danny Amendola47240
Timothy Wright13150
Shane Vereen34140
James White2280
Steve Maneri0100
Michael Hoomanawanui0100
Brandon Bolden0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.50