Closing spread
BAL -14
Total
40
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.069
- 38.1%Success rate44.2%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- -7.11CPOE-0.77
- 29.9%Third-down rate41.5%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.44Points / drive2.21
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Shaw | 14/28 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Connor Shaw | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/36 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.34
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.66