2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Connor Shaw

10·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -14

Total

40

Model margin

+4.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.069
  • 38.1%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.149
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -7.11CPOE-0.77
  • 29.9%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.21
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:58545Turnover0–0
BALQ1 11:2135Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:5839Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:151247Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 2:4038Punt0–0
BALQ1 1:03410Punt0–0
CLEQ2 13:4642Punt0–0
BALQ2 11:37851Field goal0–3
CLEQ2 8:05955Field goal3–3
BALQ2 2:3252Punt3–3
CLEQ2 0:4900End of half3–3
CLEQ3 15:001226Punt3–3
BALQ3 8:51412Punt3–3
CLEQ3 7:22875Touchdown10–3
BALQ3 3:29643Punt10–3
CLEQ3 1:4359Punt10–3
BALQ4 14:41868Field goal10–6
CLEQ4 10:3737Punt10–6
BALQ4 8:23269Touchdown10–13
CLEQ4 7:3330Punt10–13
BALQ4 7:00657Touchdown10–20
CLEQ4 3:44825Turnover10–20
BALQ4 2:20446End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Connor Shaw14/2817701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West18945.21
Connor Shaw791.30
Isaiah Crowell461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel37660
Jordan Cameron36410
Andrew Hawkins47330
Isaiah Crowell11160
Terrance West23120
Travis Benjamin1390
Rodney Smith0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3631220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett171197.00
Bernard Pierce681.30
Joe Flacco310.30
Fitzgerald Toussaint210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith812900
Torrey Smith47831
Owen Daniels24460
Crockett Gillmore12220
Justin Forsett24170
Marlon Brown11170
Michael Campanaro13170
Kamar Aiken22131
Fitzgerald Toussaint1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.34
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.66